Analisi Recordati

Nonostante i multipli piuttosto elevati e la grande corsa del titolo negli ultimi mesi Recordati sembra avere ancora margini di apprezzamento grazie alle prospettive di introduzione di nuovi farmaci e l'ottimo track record.

28 novembre 2010 , ore 16:46 - 204 Commenti

Introduzione


Nonostante i multipli piuttosto elevati e la grande corsa del titolo negli ultimi mesi Recordati sembra avere ancora margini di apprezzamento grazie alle prospettive di introduzione di nuovi farmaci e l’ottimo track record.



Profilo Societario


Recordati e’ un gruppo farmaceutico europeo basato sulla ricerca, aperto a collaborazioni ed impegnato nella scoperta, nello sviluppo e nella vendita di prodotti innovativi, ad elevato valore aggiunto. L’attivita’ di ricerca farmaceutica e’ focalizzata sulla sintesi di nuove molecole per le aree terapeutiche cardiologica e urologica. Il gruppo e’ presente, con la propria rete d’informazione medico scientifica, nel mercato italiano, francese, spagnolo e portoghese e in altri 60 paesi attraverso collaborazioni con licenziatari. Recordati affianca alla produzione di principi attivi per le proprie specialita’ farmaceutiche, quella, su larga scala, di principi attivi ed intermedi per altre industrie farmaceutiche.


Analisi titolo Recordati



Le azioni Recordati fanno parte del paniere Ftse Italia Mid Cap e rientrano nel segmento Blue Chips.

Recordati mostra una rischiosità inferiore alla media del mercato (beta minore di 1) che riflette la presenza in un business anticiclico come quello farmaceutico.

Negli ultimi 3 anni il titolo Recordati ha registrato una performance positiva (+8,8%) a fronte del -46,7% dell’indice Ftse Mib: le azioni hanno seguito il trend negativo dei mercati fino a ottobre 2008, per stabilizzarsi nei mesi fino a marzo 2009 (periodo nel quale l’indice ha continuato a scendere) ed iniziare la ripresa nella primavera dello stesso anno con un trend costante che si è rafforzato negli ultimi mesi.


Recordati: Analisi Bilancio





























































































































2007 Var % 2008 Var % 2009
Totale Ricavi 628,435 9,74 % 689,634 8,39 % 747,524
Margine operativo lordo 157,466 10,61 % 174,173 13,12 % 197,018
Ebitda margin 25,057   25,256   26,356
Margine operativo netto 131,496 10,06 % 144,730 12,07 % 162,204
Ebit Margin 20,92   20,99   21,70
Risultato Ante Imposte 127,425 8,41 % 138,146 10,50 % 152,652
Ebt Margin 20,28   20,03   20,42
Risultato Netto 84,865 18,34 % 100,429 10,09 % 110,566
E-Margin 13,50   14,56   14,79
PFN (Cassa) 97,160 -16,62 % 81,008 -75,63 % 19,743
Patrimonio Netto 390,611 14,11 % 445,742 14,19 % 508,979
Capitale Investito 508,202 7,51 % 546,374 0,41 % 548,617
ROE 21,73   22,53   21,72
ROCE 25,875   26,489   29,566

Commento ai dati di bilancio


Nel triennio 2007-2009 Recordati ha mostrato una crescita del fatturato del 18,9% mentre il margine operativo lordo è salito del 25,1% in presenza di una marginalità in crescita di circa un punto percentuale; il risultato operativo è salito del 23,4% mentre il risultato netto è passato da 84,9 a 110,5 milioni di Euro (+30,3%). La redditività del capitale investito (ROI) è cresciuta di quasi 4 punti al 29,6% mentre il ROE è rimasto stabile al 21,7%. L’indebitamento finanziario netto è in calo a 19,7 milioni con un rapporto debt to equity di 0,04.


Ultimi Sviluppi : nei primi nove mesi dell’anno i ricavi sono diminuiti a 548,6 milioni di euro (-1,4% sui primi 9 mesi del 2009), il risultato operativo ha raggiunto i 123,9 milioni (+1,6%) mentre l’utile netto si è attestato a 87 milioni con una crescita del 2,1% sul 2009. La posizione finanziaria netta evidenzia una disponibilità di 20,1 milioni, in crescita di 39,8 milioni rispetto al 31 dicembre 2009.


Comparables





























Azienda P/E P/BV Dividend Yield %
Recordati 13,2 2,88 3,9%
Pfizer 22,1 1,50 4,3%
Merck 12,6 1,82 4,4%

Commento : nel raffronto con le principali aziende internazionali operanti nel settore della farmaceutica Recordati risulta la più cara sulla base del rapporto Price/Book Value (Prezzo/Valore Contabile) mentre è nella media se si guarda al Price/Earnings (Prezzo Utili); il rendimento da dividendi risulta il più basso tra le aziende incluse nel campione ma non è distante dai comparables (valori prossimi al 4%).


Plus e Minus


Opportunità : a partire dal 2010 inizierà la commercializzazione di nuovi farmaci basati sulla silodosina di cui Recordati ha l’esclusiva per l’intera Europa


Rischi : la scadenza del brevetto sul farmaco di punta (Zanidip) ha causato, già dall’anno in corso, una diminuzione dei ricavi che potrebbe acuirsi nel prossimo esercizio


Ipotesi Valutazione e Sensitivity Analysis


Nell’applicazione del metodo dei flussi di cassa scontati e dell’Economic Value Added si sono ipotizzati:

- un tasso di crescita dei ricavi negativo (-3%) nel 2010 che torna positivo nel biennio successivo (+4%) per riportarsi al 3% nel lungo periodo;

- margini sulle vendite stabili al 26% su tutto il periodo di previsione;

- una redditività operativa (ROI) di lungo periodo del 27,3%

Infine si prevede un tax rate in crescita al 35% a partire dal 2011, un costo del debito medio del 5% ed un payout in crescita fino al 60% del 2012 ed anni successivi.

I risultati del modello convergono su un valore per azione di circa 8,3 Euro che tende a crescere (ridursi) di 0,45 Euro per ogni punto in più (in meno) del margine sulle vendite come mostrato nella figura seguente.



Dati prospettici










































































































































































































































































































































































Anno di previsione 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Impieghi
Capitale Circolante Netto 43,86 41,97 44,45 47,02 49,03 51,10
Immobilizzazioni 484,86 507,06 527,34 548,44 564,89 581,84
Totale Impieghi 528,72 549,04 571,79 595,46 613,92 632,94
Fonti
Indebitamento finanziario netto 19,74 -7,37 -26,84 -47,33 -74,65 -103,12
Patrimonio Netto 508,98 556,41 598,63 642,79 688,57 736,06
Totale Fonti 528,72 549,04 571,79 595,46 613,92 632,94
Conto Economico
Fatturato 747,52 725,10 754,10 784,27 807,79 832,03
Costi operativi 550,51 536,57 558,04 580,36 597,77 615,70
MOL 197,02 188,53 196,07 203,91 210,03 216,33
Ammortamenti e accantonamenti 34,81 33,21 34,54 35,92 37,00 38,11
Risultato operativo 162,20 155,31 161,53 167,99 173,03 178,22
Proventi/oneri finanziari -5,80 -0,31 0,86 1,85 3,05 4,44
Componenti Straordinari -3,75 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
Risultato al lordo delle imposte 152,65 155,00 162,38 169,84 176,08 182,66
Imposte 42,09 49,60 56,83 59,44 61,63 63,93
Utile di Esercizio 110,57 105,40 105,55 110,40 114,45 118,73
* di cui utile di terzi 0,01 —— —— —— —— ——
Utile netto 110,56 —— —— —— —— ——
Flussi di Cassa
Utile 110,57 105,40 105,55 110,40 114,45 118,73
Ammortamenti e accantonamenti 34,81 33,21 34,54 35,92 37,00 38,11
Componenti Straordinari -3,75 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
Cash flow gestionale —— 138,62 140,09 146,32 151,45 156,84
Dividendi —— 57,97 63,33 66,24 68,67 71,24
Investimenti in immobilizzazioni —— 55,42 54,82 57,02 53,45 55,06
Investimenti in CCN —— -1,89 2,47 2,57 2,01 2,07
Cash flow netto —— 27,12 19,46 20,49 27,32 28,48
Indici
ROE % —— 18,94 17,63 17,17 16,62 16,13
ROI % —— 27,30 27,30 27,30 27,30 27,30
ROI(1-t) % —— 18,56 17,74 17,74 17,74 17,74
Debt to equity —— -0,01 -0,04 -0,07 -0,11 -0,14
Costo del debito % —— 5,00 5,00 5,00 5,00 5,00
Tax rate % —— 32,00 35,00 35,00 35,00 35,00
Payout —— 55,00 60,00 60,00 60,00 60,00
Debt to equity —— -0,01 -0,04 -0,07 -0,11 -0,14
Rotazione CCN —— 11,72 11,72 11,72 11,72 11,72
Rotazione immobilizzazioni —— 1,43 1,43 1,43 1,43 1,43
Incidenza costi operativi % —— 74,00 74,00 74,00 74,00 74,00

L’analisi Recordati è fornita da Evaluation.it


 
 
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