Future Dax (FDax), ecco perchè sono long nel breve e short nel lungo
Alcuni elementi mi hanno spinto a prendere una posizione long di breve periodo sul future del Dax, nonostante la mia visione sul lungo periodo sia short
Un saluto a tutti i lettori del Magazine. Per il mio primo articolo su questa sezione del sito desidero parlarvi del Future del Dax, il principale indice di borsa tedesco, detto anche FDax.
Sono attualmente long sul Future FDax, e passo ad illustrarvi le 4 le motivazioni per questa mia operatività.
Primo motivo, FDax daily:
la Tenkan-Sen (linea rossa) sul daily ha avuto un forte supporto e un long di effetto con forte rimbalzo era prevedibile vista la mancata rottura down; ora l’FDax ha chiuso sopra le trendlines. Adesso mi manca l’incrocio della Kijun-Sen (linea blu, media mobile a 9 giorni) sulla linea bianca (media mobile a 25 giorni) per avere una conferma del proseguimento del trend in atto con conseguente rottura dei massimi fatti a 6906,5.
Oggi le due medie passano a 6735.1 in eguale misura.
Come potete seguirmi secondo il mio metodo: sull’incrocio up della Kijun-Sen incrementerò la mia posizione long che andrò a chiudere nelle seguenti eventualità:
1) se la Kijun-Sen (linea blu) non dovesse incrociare al rialzo la linea bianca (Media Mobile a 25 giorni) e chiudere sopra tale linea;
2) su mancato sfondamento della trendline superiore. In tal caso comincerò a prendere posizione short sul FDax.
FDax daily; clicca sull'immagine per ingrandire.
Secondo motivo, lo Stoxx:
Lo Stoxx lo seguo ma non faccio trading su di esso, bensì lo uso SOLO PER INFORMAZIONI.
Il movimento che mi aspetto è che la prima RSI (una RSI a 5 giorni) buchi la linea dei 50; la conferma del trend in atto l’avrò su conferma della 3° e 4° RSI (rispettivamente a 15 e 19 giorni) come da grafico sottostante.
Stoxx; clicca sull'immagine per ingrandire.
3° motivo, Future Fdax a 4 ore:
come scritto in real time venerdì, la tenuta della cloud e la doppia candela sopra la Kiijun sen (linea blu) mi ha dato la possibilità visto la tenuta sul daily della tenkan sen (linea rossa) di longare quasi a colpo sicuro e lo squeeze che avevo prospettato su rottura della stessa cloud in alto si è verificato.
A questo punto la situazione è chiara visto pure le divergenze fra RSI e FDax: su rottura al ribasso dell’RSI della propria statica (RSI a 14 giorni, vedi grafico sottostante) chiuderei tutti i long, mentre su rottura dell’FDax della propria trendline superiore incrementerei i long.
Sul raggiungimento del RSI sopra la linea dei 70 comincerei però a prendere in considerazione un accumulo di short, ma prima andrei a confrontare il tutto sul daily come spiegato sopra.
FDax a 4 ore; clicca sull'immagine per ingrandire.
4° motivo, FDax orario:
la tenuta della trendline inferiore (linea viola inferiore), le divergenze fra FDax ed RSI, ed infine la mancata rottura della cloud mi hanno spinto ad una posizione long sia pur di breve durata, visto che la mia idea sul lungo periodo rimane negativa.
Ora unico segnale ancora negativo è la tenkan sen sotto la kijun sen. Il close della candela sotto la Media Mobile bianca è un segnale di avviso compensato però dal close dell’ RSI sopra la linea dei 50, specie la quarta linea RSI (quella dell’RSI a 19 giorni) che sarà quella che mi dirà come seguire il trend sul breve periodo.
FDax ad 1 ora; clicca sull'immagine per ingrandire.
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This is getting a bit more subjective, but I much prefer the Zune Marketplace. The interface is colorful, has more flair, and some cool features like ‘Mixview’ that let you quickly see related albums, songs, or other users related to what you’re listening to. Clicking on one of those will center on that item, and another set of “neighbors” will come into view, allowing you to navigate around exploring by similar artists, songs, or users. Speaking of users, the Zune “Social” is also great fun, letting you find others with shared tastes and becoming friends with them. You then can listen to a playlist created based on an amalgamation of what all your friends are listening to, which is also enjoyable. Those concerned with privacy will be relieved to know you can prevent the public from seeing your personal listening habits if you so choose.
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The new Zune browser is surprisingly good, but not as good as the iPod’s. It works well, but isn’t as fast as Safari, and has a clunkier interface. If you occasionally plan on using the web browser that’s not an issue, but if you’re planning to browse the web alot from your PMP then the iPod’s larger screen and better browser may be important.
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Apple now has Rhapsody as an app, which is a great start, but it is currently hampered by the inability to store locally on your iPod, and has a dismal 64kbps bit rate. If this changes, then it will somewhat negate this advantage for the Zune, but the 10 songs per month will still be a big plus in Zune Pass’ favor.
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I’ll gear this review to 2 types of people: current Zune owners who are considering an upgrade, and people trying to decide between a Zune and an iPod. (There are other players worth considering out there, like the Sony Walkman X, but I hope this gives you enough info to make an informed decision of the Zune vs players other than the iPod line as well.)
This is getting a bit more subjective, but I much prefer the Zune Marketplace. The interface is colorful, has more flair, and some cool features like ‘Mixview’ that let you quickly see related albums, songs, or other users related to what you’re listening to. Clicking on one of those will center on that item, and another set of “neighbors” will come into view, allowing you to navigate around exploring by similar artists, songs, or users. Speaking of users, the Zune “Social” is also great fun, letting you find others with shared tastes and becoming friends with them. You then can listen to a playlist created based on an amalgamation of what all your friends are listening to, which is also enjoyable. Those concerned with privacy will be relieved to know you can prevent the public from seeing your personal listening habits if you so choose.
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