Il Trend Knock Out di Landry, pattern per evitare di cadere nelle trappole delle mani fortiUn pattern di Dave Landry utile nelle fasi iniziali di un trend.Anno nuovo, argomenti nuovi. Due osservazioni. Lo swing trading come l’intende Landry dura da 2 a 7 gg, quindi non è detto che questi pattern funzionino nell’intraday. Inoltre bisogna sottolineare che l’autore non cerca di prevedere il futuro, mira solo a trovare delle figure che facciano confidare nella prosecuzione del trend. Per conto mio, punto a “prendere” unicamente la fase centrale o centralissima del trend. In base ai test con danaro reale che ho fatto in tutti questi mesi, ho verificato che quando l’obiettivo è così ragionevole e il momento dell’entrata viene scelto in base a tecniche già utilizzate tante volte con successo, la percentuale di operazioni positive risulta parecchio elevata. Questo consente l’allargamento degli stop, che a sua volta incrementa il numero di operazioni chiuse con profitto, in una specie di circolo virtuoso, grazie anche alle particolari caratteristiche dei futures EUR/USD. In futuro spero di riuscire a eliminare completamente gli stop grazie ai derivati. Però non è facile ottenere dalle married put la necessaria flessibilità, e d’altra parte l’uso dei “controfutures” (cioè di futures sullo stesso sottostante ma con scadenza diversa e segno opposto) diventa abbastanza angosciante quando si va molto sott’acqua, anche se il rischio effettivo rimane contenutissimo. PATTERN 1. TKO di LandryCome tutti, Landry ha notato che specie nelle fasi iniziali del trend le mani forti tendono ad espellere i piccoli ricorrendo a svariate trappole. Lo scopo del TKO -Trend Knock Out- è cercare di ridurre la possibilità di cadere nella rete. Dopo aver verificato la trendyness di un determinato mercato (i modi per farlo li vedremo in un prossimo post, del resto un buon trend è perfettamente riconoscibile a occhio) aspettiamo che venga violato il minimo delle ultime due candele. A quel punto inseriamo un buy-stop appena al di sopra del massimo della candela del giorno di violazione, valido per il giorno dopo e per quello ancora successivo. Se il buy-stop viene catturato, inseriamo uno stoploss subito al di sotto del minimo del giorno di violazione. Quando lo stop così calcolato risulta maggiore del 5%, useremo invece uno stop secco del -5%. Ovviamente per le operazioni short il discorso va rovesciato. Forse sarà tutto più chiaro con un esempio (vedi grafico).
Sono possibili infinite varianti. Lo stesso Landry dice che per maggior sicurezza si può spostare il setup alla violazione del minimo delle ultime tre giornate o più, anziché due. Ci sarebbero tante altre possibilità… piazzare il buy-stop a tot % sopra il massimo di C… utilizzare stop legati alla volatilità e poi trailing stop via via più stretti ecc. ecc. P.S. ULTIMISSIMA PREVISIONE DI GOLDMAN SACHS /// Oggi il target per il 31/12/2011 è salito a 1500. Questo il commento di uno dei massimi dirigenti di GS: “We have a very out-of-consensus view for how much the economy can grow before this growth generates higher inflation and interest rates.” 
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227 Commenti
Ho letto con interesse questo primo articolo sulle tecniche di Landry ma non credo che l’esempio postato sia quello più corretto per la descrizione del pattern.
Quello che vedo io è un semplice e ben configurato pullback a due barre (o candele) dove:
-la C è la barra di setup;
-la D è la barra in cui si genera l’entrata;
-la E è il corretto posizionamento dello stop loss.
Landry descrive il TKO come una barra che deve “mangiarsi” almeno i due minimi precedenti, generando così un’occasione per entrare long e senza però negare il movimento rialzista in alto: si tratta di un segnale di stanchezza all’interno di un trend in atto.
Comunque ottima iniziativa quella di divulgare le tecniche di Landry, spero che seguiranno altri post sull’argomento.
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I’ll gear this review to 2 types of people: current Zune owners who are considering an upgrade, and people trying to decide between a Zune and an iPod. (There are other players worth considering out there, like the Sony Walkman X, but I hope this gives you enough info to make an informed decision of the Zune vs players other than the iPod line as well.)
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If you’re still on the fence: grab your favorite earphones, head down to a Best Buy and ask to plug them into a Zune then an iPod and see which one sounds better to you, and which interface makes you smile more. Then you’ll know which is right for you.
If you’re still on the fence: grab your favorite earphones, head down to a Best Buy and ask to plug them into a Zune then an iPod and see which one sounds better to you, and which interface makes you smile more. Then you’ll know which is right for you.
Apple now has Rhapsody as an app, which is a great start, but it is currently hampered by the inability to store locally on your iPod, and has a dismal 64kbps bit rate. If this changes, then it will somewhat negate this advantage for the Zune, but the 10 songs per month will still be a big plus in Zune Pass’ favor.
The new Zune browser is surprisingly good, but not as good as the iPod’s. It works well, but isn’t as fast as Safari, and has a clunkier interface. If you occasionally plan on using the web browser that’s not an issue, but if you’re planning to browse the web alot from your PMP then the iPod’s larger screen and better browser may be important.
Sorry for the huge review, but I’m really loving the new Zune, and hope this, as well as the excellent reviews some other people have written, will help you decide if it’s the right choice for you.
The new Zune browser is surprisingly good, but not as good as the iPod’s. It works well, but isn’t as fast as Safari, and has a clunkier interface. If you occasionally plan on using the web browser that’s not an issue, but if you’re planning to browse the web alot from your PMP then the iPod’s larger screen and better browser may be important.
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