Perchè è cosi difficile fare previsioni in borsa? Previsioni economiche 2011, capitolo 5.Già a Babilonia facevano previsioni sulla loro borsa merci. Tra analisti "timorosi" ed "ambiziosi", guru bastonati dagli eventi ed altri che contano sulla memoria collettiva fallace eccoci giungere al grande Ken Fisher per l'ennesima previsione "flat" del 2011.
Per esempio, noi siamo concentrati su un sol campo -l’azionario- e non teniamo conto che ogni Guru a inizio anno predice l’andamento futuro non solo di Wall Street, ma anche del Pil, dei bond, dell’inflazione, della disoccupazione,dell’immobiliare ecc. E’ realistico pensare che un essere umano possa indovinarle tutte? Può capitare che ci prenda una volta -diventando famoso- ma poi non farà altro che inanellare una serie infinita di insuccessi. Il giornale cita la Garzarelli, che previde il crash del 1987 ma non riuscì mai più a ripetere quell’exploit, e Roubini che dopo aver predetto correttamente la crisi dei finanziari non ne ha più imbroccata una (vedi il grafico allegato a un post di qualche tempo fa), ma si potrebbero fare molti altri nomi, da Granville a Prechter.  Le previsioni di borsa negli ultimi 10 anni sono state più spesso sbagliate di quanto siano state azzeccate! Perché è così difficile fare previsioni di borsa? La risposta del WSJ è semplice ed efficace. Un’altra causa di errori, più sofisticata, è questa. Secondo il WSJ, quelli che fanno previsioni per mestiere possono essere divisi in due categorie. I timorosi, preoccupati per il loro posto di lavoro in caso di insuccesso, tendono a FALSARE le loro previsioni tenendole nella media, in maniera da correre pochi rischi. Nessuno licenzia chi sbaglia insieme alla maggioranza… Viceversa gli ambiziosi tendono ugualmente a FALSARE le loro idee, estremizzandole… se ci prenderanno, per loro si aprirà una splendida carriera, mentre in caso di errore potranno contare sulla scarsa memoria della gente nei riguardi dei perdenti. Per noi italiani tutto questo può sembrare esagerato, visto che i nostri Guru Professionali non se li fila nessuno, e vivacchiano come possono seguiti da quattro gatti. Ma in America -mercato enormemente più grande e dove la borsa appassiona la maggioranza dei cittadini- i guru alla Cramer sono delle vere star, dei divi della TV con un’audience mondiale…e fama e guadagni in proporzione. Francamente mi fa piacere notare (perché vuol dire che non sempre sparo cavolate) che considerazioni analoghe le avevo fatte a proposito di un guretto USA di un sito minore che mesi fa sentenziò con una sicumera incredibile “Il Dow non arriverà mai più a 10.000”… Bravo! Bastarono pochi giorni e l’indice sfondò quella quota! Evidentemente quel povero guru di serie C si era detto “o la va o la spacca”, ma gli era andata davvero male. Un altro spunto che il Wall Street Journal ha ripreso da questo thread (ohè, scherzo!) è la grande sghignazzata che tempo fa facemmo con Franzo a proposito dell’Hindenburg Omen e della Death Cross, che hanno dato segnali clamorosamente errati e oggi vengono ridicolizzati anche dal più grande giornale finanziario del mondo. Qualche Guru da Forum dirà “ridi, ridi… vedrai che catastrofe ci aspetta!”. Eh no! Una previsione deve rispettare il suo timing, altrimenti che previsione è? Lo sappiamo tutti che PRIMA o POI verrà una settimana da -20% o peggio… Lo sappiamo tutti che PRIMA o POI lasceremo (toccare ferro, please) questa valle di lacrime… Se l’indovino non sa dire QUANDO succederanno le cose, o sbaglia il timing, cosa ce ne facciamo delle sue previsioni? Altra considerazione interessante del WSJ…sul breve termine, spesso il mercato è il miglior profeta di sé stesso… nel senso che anticipa recessioni e recuperi. Il giornale cita l’ultima parte del 2007 e il 2009 che anticiparono perfettamente gli eventi successivi, rispettivamente crollo e recupero. Aggiungerei l’andamento del 2001 con una discesa spaventosa che poi venne “giustificata” dalla tragedia delle torri, il cui verificarsi innescò un forte e lungo rimbalzo proprio perché era stata misteriosamente anticipata dal mercato e quindi era già incorporata nei prezzi.
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If you’re still on the fence: grab your favorite earphones, head down to a Best Buy and ask to plug them into a Zune then an iPod and see which one sounds better to you, and which interface makes you smile more. Then you’ll know which is right for you.
This is getting a bit more subjective, but I much prefer the Zune Marketplace. The interface is colorful, has more flair, and some cool features like ‘Mixview’ that let you quickly see related albums, songs, or other users related to what you’re listening to. Clicking on one of those will center on that item, and another set of “neighbors” will come into view, allowing you to navigate around exploring by similar artists, songs, or users. Speaking of users, the Zune “Social” is also great fun, letting you find others with shared tastes and becoming friends with them. You then can listen to a playlist created based on an amalgamation of what all your friends are listening to, which is also enjoyable. Those concerned with privacy will be relieved to know you can prevent the public from seeing your personal listening habits if you so choose.
I’ll gear this review to 2 types of people: current Zune owners who are considering an upgrade, and people trying to decide between a Zune and an iPod. (There are other players worth considering out there, like the Sony Walkman X, but I hope this gives you enough info to make an informed decision of the Zune vs players other than the iPod line as well.)
Hands down, Apple’s app store wins by a mile. It’s a huge selection of all sorts of apps vs a rather sad selection of a handful for Zune. Microsoft has plans, especially in the realm of games, but I’m not sure I’d want to bet on the future if this aspect is important to you. The iPod is a much better choice in that case.
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This is getting a bit more subjective, but I much prefer the Zune Marketplace. The interface is colorful, has more flair, and some cool features like ‘Mixview’ that let you quickly see related albums, songs, or other users related to what you’re listening to. Clicking on one of those will center on that item, and another set of “neighbors” will come into view, allowing you to navigate around exploring by similar artists, songs, or users. Speaking of users, the Zune “Social” is also great fun, letting you find others with shared tastes and becoming friends with them. You then can listen to a playlist created based on an amalgamation of what all your friends are listening to, which is also enjoyable. Those concerned with privacy will be relieved to know you can prevent the public from seeing your personal listening habits if you so choose.
The Zune concentrates on being a Portable Media Player. Not a web browser. Not a game machine. Maybe in the future it’ll do even better in those areas, but for now it’s a fantastic way to organize and listen to your music and videos, and is without peer in that regard. The iPod’s strengths are its web browsing and apps. If those sound more compelling, perhaps it is your best choice.
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Apple now has Rhapsody as an app, which is a great start, but it is currently hampered by the inability to store locally on your iPod, and has a dismal 64kbps bit rate. If this changes, then it will somewhat negate this advantage for the Zune, but the 10 songs per month will still be a big plus in Zune Pass’ favor.
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The new Zune browser is surprisingly good, but not as good as the iPod’s. It works well, but isn’t as fast as Safari, and has a clunkier interface. If you occasionally plan on using the web browser that’s not an issue, but if you’re planning to browse the web alot from your PMP then the iPod’s larger screen and better browser may be important.
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