Quali le prospettive a breve sui titoli di stato ellenici?

Tra buy-back e Brady bond l'incertezza sembra volgere al termine

6 febbraio 2011 , ore 10:34 - 165 Commenti

La settimana degli spread/bund si chiude invariata per i nostri ellenici dopo aver conseguito, a partire da lunedì, un restringimento nell’ordine di una cinquantina di punti.

Come da previsione, dal Vertice di Bruxelles non è sortita nessuna decisione esecutiva, il tutto è stato rimandato a marzo per dar modo di discutere nel dettaglio le proposte del duo Merkel/Sarkozy.

La situazione che si potrebbe prospettare nelle prossime settimane sarà veramente difficile da pronosticare: da una parte ci si potrebbe aspettare un consolidamento dei corsi ed un’ulteriore risalita, dall’altra parte una progressiva discesa.

Cerco di spiegarmi meglio, i mercati prevedono un ulteriore passo in avanti nel processo di armonizzazione dei sistemi economici dell’area euro.
Ci vorrà del tempo, non si farà tutto nel giro di un mese, ma il processo è delineato. Più integrazione ma anche più attenzione verso le “sofferenze” dei Periferici con azioni più incisive per riportare più normalità nei differenziali di rendimento tra tutti i TdS appartenenti all’area della moneta unica.

Il controcanto direbbe invece che la soluzione migliore consisterebbe certamente in un processo di armonizzazione ma la soluzione definitiva passerebbe attraverso un buy-back o un piano Brady di cui abbiamo ampiamente discusso su queste pagine.
Perchè i piani abbiano un concreto successo è necessario che le quotazioni dei titoli siano basse: più il titolo scende, maggiore sarà il successo dell’operazione.

Sui nostri GGB abbiamo visto che, nonostante le buone notizie sul piano di rientro concordato tra l’esecutivo ellenico e la troika, determinanti rimangono gli interventi fatti sul secondario dalla BCE.
Questa, solitamente, interviene quando gli spread allargano cercando di frenare le spinte del mercato. Gli acquisti complessivi ammontano attualmente a circa 75 MLD di cui – pare – una cinquantina siano solo ellenici.

Questa settimana la BCE non è intervenuta sul mercato: il dato è certamente positivo poichè denota che i nostri titoli viaggiano con le proprie gambe.
Ma in caso di ulteriori pressioni, come si comporterà questa volta?
Lascerà che i titoli ritorneranno ad allargare di 100/200 punti base in modo che l’operazione di buy-back sia fatta con pieno successo o ritornerà ad intervenire per spegnere l’incendio che andrà direttamente ad attaccare questa volta la Spagna ( e ,forse, anche l’Italia)?

Veramente difficile prendere una posizione.
La discussione è aperta …

Intanto, credo, che la situazione potrà rimanere stazionaria sino a martedì.
In tarda mattinata saranno diffusi gli esiti dell’asta del semestrale greco: le attese sono certamenente per un ottimo bid/cover (su questo i greci sono campioni assoluti) ma inderogabilmente ci aspettiamo una discesa dei rendimenti pagati rispetto alle precedenti aste.

La PDMA con ogni probabilità cercherà poi, questo mese, di emettere per la successiva asta del 15 il famoso “annuale”. Sempre che le condizioni lo permetteranno … su questo titolo sarà necessario pagare meno del 5% (basterebbe il 4,95% …)
Altrimenti si ripiegherà sul solito trimestrale.
Solitamente l’Ufficio del Debito Pubblico iniziava le periodiche aste mensili partendo con il tre mesi.

Insomma, come al solito, non ci mancheranno le sorprese dai nostri adrenalinici titoli.
Le mie “raccomandazioni” sono sempre le solite di sempre, accostarsi ai GGB con quote marginali del portafoglio e solo da utenti esperti ed avvezzi al rischio.

Queste le chiusure di venerdì dello spread/bund sul decennale, dati ufficiali Thomson-Reuters, tra parentesi il dato del giorno precedente:

Grecia 766 pb. (767)
Irlanda 562 pb. (574)
Portogallo 378 pb. (371)
Spagna 190 pb. (199)
Italia 136 pb. (140)
Belgio 89 pb. (95)

 
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Categorie : Attualità, Obbligazioni
 
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    The new Zune browser is surprisingly good, but not as good as the iPod’s. It works well, but isn’t as fast as Safari, and has a clunkier interface. If you occasionally plan on using the web browser that’s not an issue, but if you’re planning to browse the web alot from your PMP then the iPod’s larger screen and better browser may be important.

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